Monday, October 22, 2012

The Anti-Reykjavik: Obama's October Surprise not Really all That Surprising

Back in the 1980s, into Ronald Reagan's time as President of these United States of America, Ronaldus Maximus met with Premier Mikhail Gorbechev in Iceland for a nuclear proliferation summit. During that summit, it was revealed to The Great Communicator that he'd been swindled into almost negotiating away our only defense against Soviet nuclear aggression: The SDI Defense, which we all know now was just a bluff on our part to fool the Soviets into thinking we could shoot down their nuclear missiles with the touch of a button. It looks like we're not facing a similar situation here under the Obama administration with Iran playing the role of the Soviets. Ronald Reagan walked away. Obama intends to hear his own particular tyrant out. Here's why it won't work:

1. Too Little, Too Late:

The president appears to have played his trump card. Dick Morris predicted an October surprise coming up in a few days involving Iran and the United States negotiating a settlement regarding their nuclear program. Obama said once or twice during his campaign in 2008 that he would be more than happy to meet with Mahmud Ahmedenijad in order to avert the possibility of their gaining nuclear capability and thus having the power to wipe Israel off the map. Obama thought back then that his winning smile and not-so-killer good looks would be enough to make the mad Iranian Hitler wannabe back down, but all he did in response to Obama's appeasement was move further toward getting the very thing we didn't want them to get: nukes.

Now Obama has revealed this supposed trump card of his two weeks before the election. The timing alone is suspect, of course, but so is the motivation of both sides. Obama no doubt is using this as the usual "October Surprise" bit that usually comes out and turns the election around, or at the very least causes a hiccup in the opposing candidate's campaign efforts. It won't work this time for a  very simple reason. As stated above, it is simply too late to stop the Romney campaign's momentum with any   token gestures of effectiveness. With Romney up 6 in the latest Gallup poll (as of this writing) and only showing signs of further widening that lead (running positive ads in the swing states, Ryan campaigning in Western Pennsylvania, among others), the Obama campaign is looking more and more desperate with every stopgap measure they unveil. First it was Big Bird, then it was Binders Full of Women, and let's not even go into Tagg Romney supposedly wanting to punch the President in the face. As a certain comedian whose name escapes me at the moment said, "if he keeps this up, by next week he'll have to hurl actual sh!t."

2. We're on to him.

Tying into reason number one why this little October not surprise will only result in failure is reason number two. Quite simply, we the people are on to his little game of token gestures and class warfare, and there are too many of us who are now awake (or too many of those not awake who simply decided to vote for the other guy this time) to stem the tide. Obama can make all the diplomatic gestures he wants toward Iran, Saudi Arabia, and all those other countries, but he can't change the facts. Ambassador Chris Stevens is dead. Plain and simple. He was not only killed, but tortured before he was killed. This will stick in the minds of every reasonable American who knows about it. Obama can talk all he wants about how he'll divert a nuclear Iran from becoming a reality, but people like me know the real game being played here.

3. Dick Morris is Usually Right

Former Clinton advisor and Conservative  (former) Democrat Dick Morris told everyone that Obama had an October surprise up his sleeve that would involve Iran and negotiations with the U.S. to deal with their nuclear program. Just yesterday I found this piece from the New York Times as well as the video from Dick Morris himself explaining what he meant. Comparing the video and the NYT story, not to mention the several entries on this story at Hot Air, one can clearly see that Dick had this one right on the money. Not three days after he posted that video, this hits the front page of Hotair, along with this, and this, not to mention this from the New York Times. The second one of those is rather interesting to me, given that NO ONE is supposedly owning up to these talks when they come two weeks before election day? Makes me wonder if they're even really going to happen.

4. Glora Allred has her Own "October Surprise"...and it's a Year Old.

It's taken me a few days to actually get to a point where I can finish this post, so some of the above might have changed since then, but it's not likely. Still, one thing that DID come out was everyone's favorite ambulance chaser Gloria Allred announcing that she had another victim du jour under her hat that the  news sites all said she was planning on trotting out to try to put a stop to Romney's momentum. Apparently  when Romney was in his twenties (read thirty some years ago!) he vehemently tried to convince a woman not to have an abortion. No, you read that right. Glora Allred thinks that because Romney tried to convince a woman not to have an abortion because it wasn't in line with the tenants of his faith that he somehow is guilty of harassing said woman. I'm betting that if this does get trotted out for the news sites, it'll be an attempt to resurrect the "Romney is a Bully" narrative that they had going in the first weeks of the election. What Allred likely doesn't seem to realize is that the NYT reported on this story over a year ago. Someone needs to inform Allred just what the word "surprise" means. Snark about Allred aside, this is another reason Obama's Iran story won't work. If this hits the airwaves and people scoff at it (as I believe they will) then it won't make Obama's Iran story any more credible than it is, and may even detract from whatever credibility it does have.

So when all is said and done, The above mentioned stories are going to have zero positive effect for the Obama campaign, simply because these stories aren't going to sway the undecideds. These stories are meant for shoring up the base and getting the core supporters excited. I seem to remember another campaign in 2008 that tried doing the same thing. That is, ginning up support of the base when the election was almost here. But as we all know, that one didn't turn out too well for John McCain.