Showing posts with label Rick Perry. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Rick Perry. Show all posts

Saturday, January 21, 2012

Thursday's Debate: An Analysis of South Carolina one Candidate at a Time

I'm two days late with this, but that's only because as of this writing, I have literally just finished watching my TiVoed recording of the South Carolina debate between the remaining candidates.

We began the primary season with seven candidates. A Minnesota Congresswoman, a CEO, a former Speaker of the House, a former Governor, a current Congressman, and a former Senator. Now,with the developments happening as they have, we have been reduced to four. Herman Cain was ousted after sexual harassment charges proved he didn't have what it took to stand against the smear machine that attacks all candidates that go through this process. Michelle Bachmann shot herself in the foot with her Gardasil comments, but was really taken out of the running when Rick Perry came in blustering about how he was the ideal "Not Romney".

Now we are left with four: The Speaker, the Senator, the Congressman, and the former Governor. Each of these has, whether through luck or skill, has proven that they have staying power of some kind or another. As regular readers know, I've thrown my support, meager as it is, behind Newt Gingrich in the event of losing both Bachmann and Cain. Each of the candidates in the SC debate gave a strong showing, in my opinion. Even Ron Paul, who normally comes off as naive on foreign policy, seems to have gained some footing this time around, though that may have largely been due to the fact that the moderator, John King of CNN, stuck mostly to domestic policy questions with Paul, where admittedly he shines, but more on him later.

First, let's start with what was clearly the highlight of the debate, Newt's utter lambasting of John King for bringing up the recent interview ABCInformer held with his ex-wife Marrianne. I posted the video of the exchange in my last post, and have to admit that every time I see it, I get a tingle. Now, don't go comparing me to Chris Matthews or anything. I'm well aware of Newt's foibles, but when any politician does what he did there, standing up against the unmitigated gall of the MSM to bring personal information to bear in a presidential debate against a conservative contender for president while at the same time actively protecting Barack Obama from so much as the slightest bit of honest criticism about his record. Many are saying that that response won Newt the debate, and I was initially inclined to agree with them until I realized I was letting my support for Newt blind me to the other candidates' responses to the questions being asked.

Governor Romney did well for himself, though there were some awkward moments when the question of tax returns came up. When asked point blank by King whether or not he would release the returns, he said specifically "when my taxes are done for this year, then I'll release them." This was after a bit of wishy-washy flip-flop sounds coming out of his mouth as he attempted to dodge the issue. Makes me wonder why he's waiting. Could he have something to hide? Or does he just not want to deal with the hassle of filing taxes while he's running for the highest office in the land? I don't know, and only time can answer that riddle.

Rick Santorum FINALLY went on the offense in the debate, blasting the other candidates on all things from tax policy to abortion. His strongest argument, I believe, was when he spoke out as the only "truly pro-life" candidate in the race. This, I think, was Santorum finally flashing his social conservative cred in the hopes of getting the same kind of support he had in Iowa. It may or may not work, but if it doesn't Santorum will have to reconsider his run for the White House and back either Gingrich or Romney. But what does that mean, "truly pro-life"? Does it mean that he's the only one who's worked towards protecting unborn children while working in Washington? I don't know. Newt is pro-life as well,  but Santorum, in perceiving a weak spot, tried to hit Gingrich in the chink in his armor and, I believe missed the mark. Just because Newt made a few decisions not in line with what Santorum sees as pro-life doesn't mean Newt cares any less about the unborn. Whether this will hurt Santorum or not remains to be seen, but the news buzz around the net and blogs suggests that the race may be all but over for the former Senator. Personally, I'll wait for the results to actually come in before I make that prediction.

Romney seemed less like the flip-flopper everyone says he is and largely remained consistent with his responses to King's questions, as well as the other candidate's challenges. Baine Capital didn't directly come up to rear its ugly head, which was fortunate for Romney, and when King asked about his economic views, Romney answered. After hearing him speak, I think Mitt, from an economic standpoint, would be a decent president. The major problem I have with his tendency to change his mind. Governor Romney did well for himself overall, though there were some awkward moments when the question of tax returns came up. When asked point blank by King whether or not he would release the returns, he said specifically "when my taxes are done for this year, then I'll release them." This was after a bit of wishy-washy flip-flop sounds coming out of his mouth as he attempted to dodge the issue. Makes me wonder why he's waiting. Could he have something to hide? Or does he just not want to deal with the hassle of filing taxes while he's running for the highest office in the land? I don't know, and only time can answer that riddle.

Consistency is Mitt's main weakness, and remains so, which explains why his support has stayed steady rather than rising or falling significantly during his run for the nomination. People appear too reluctant to swing his way, and as such, have gravitated towards the other three candidates in more or less equal portions. To that end, our next stop: Texas.

Specifically Texas Congressman Ron Paul. Paul has a reputation as a staunch Constitutionalist, and it is well deserved. The man reportedly has never voted to raise congressional pay, never voted for an unbalanced budget, and has voted consistently in line with his views all through his time in Washington. Domestically, he's everything you could want in a presidential candidate, from his desire to return us to the gold standard to his ideas on cutting back on foreign aid and to as he put it "stop subsidizing" other countries by using our military to defend them when they should be defending themselves. All in all decent ideas that have merit. But where Paul falls short is foreign policy. In dealing with other countries, Paul specifically stated in the last debate that we needed a "Golden Rule" premise when dealing with countries like Iran. This is the kind of foreign policy that will likely get more Americans killed than anything else, since just because we leave other countries alone, it doesn't mean they're going to leave us alone.

Finally, we come to Newt Gingrich and his performance. While trying to remain objective, I do still believe that Newt won the debate, and reminded me a bit of old footage of Ronald Reagan talking to the press. The main difference was in tone of voice. While Reagan would talk OVER the press and deflect unwanted questions with a well placed joke, Newt made it clear that he was most certainly not going to take any of King's guff, and brought the hammer down on the issue immediately.. You've all probably already seen the footage, so I won't go into it here, but I found that Newt's tone for the entire exercise was set by that one exchange. A lot of people deride Newt for his boastful attitude, but name me one candidate that had a backbone and DIDN'T sound (at least a little) like an arrogant gasbag. Even Reagan had those moments, most notably when he walked away from the table in Iceland when the Soviets tried to use diplomacy to kill SDI. Or how about this little gem from his speech at the Berlin Wall? A bit arrogant of him to call out Gorby like that, no? Well, to some it certainly was. That doesn't mean Reagan was a bad president. In fact I argue that it made him a better one, since whatever arrogance he possessed likely helped him in his decisions to walk away from the table and tell the Soviets to "tear down this wall".

Sorry about that. Got a bit off topic.

Back to Newt's debate performance: He did well, long story short. His answers were clear and concise. He defended his record with the steel spine a president needs, and he stood by previous statements he made. That, in my view, is why I'm declaring Newt the winner. He proved that he can stand the heat, and that's what we're going to need. Someone who's been through the fire before with a proven record of success.

Way to go, Newt. Way to go.

Thursday, January 19, 2012

Rising From the Ashes: Phoenix Candidate Newt get's Much Needed Boost as Perry Drops Out

Well , boys and girls, the interview that I posted about last night just before going to bed has aired. Via The Hill, a video clip now exists of Marrianne Gingrich telling the interviewer in question that Newt wanted an open marriage so that he could keep Callista on as a mistress while at the same time remaining married to Marrianne. Whether this is true or not, I have no idea, though it doesn't mesh with the story she told in 1999, which Legal Insurrection explains in perfect brevity. I don't particularly care, in truth. My interest in the Gingrich campaign is on his ideas and his record, which more than  make him qualified for the highest office in the land. The polls in South Carolina agree with me, given that Newt is now within 3 points of Romney mere days before the primary. I won't go into how the timing of the interview seems more than a little coincidental, but if I start screaming bias everywhere I go, it'll be all I see, and I'll start sounding the way Michelle Bachmann sounded when she doubled down on her Gardasil comments despite having no solid proof as to whether or not it was true. ABC News has the full skinny on the interview, and the clip I mentioned can be read there as well. There's also Newt's response to the interview, a class act, which can be viewed here.

And now that the bad news is out of the way, it's time for a pallet cleanser in the form of several pieces of good news regarding Newt and his campaign. First, we begin with the big ticket item in the news, Perry's dropping out and endorsing Newt, which has been confirmed by Legal Insurrection, Peter Hamby on Twitter, as well as Hot Air. Part of me was surprised at the fact that he didn't fall in line behind those in the Romney camp, but then I realized that he's staked his entire political image on being an anti-Romney. For him to endorse the very person he's been railing against all this time would only be political suicide in all things not having to do with the Oval Office, should he choose to pursue a Senate or House seat in the future. Either way, Perry's endorsement can only help solidify Newt's claim to being the strongest "not Romney" in the race, though the question of how much still remains in doubt. Lastly, Politico reports that the disorganization of the campaign is still with them even to the bitter end, and the exit is proving to be just as rough as the rest of the ride.

In other pro-Newt news, It appears that, according to The Daily Caller, approximately 100 Tea Party leaders from 25 states will coalesce around Newt Gingrich, giving him a more solidified foundation regarding his stance in the eyes of the Tea Party. This will likely, in my view, make up for the fact that Perry, who was only polling six percent in South Carolina, probably won't affect Newt as much as one would hope had he been doing better. Still, good news is good news, and that's what I see here. 

And thus stands the current state of the campaign of future President Newton Gingrich. More to come in the days ahead, faithful readers. Stay tuned.

UPDATE: New Rassmussen Poll has Newt taking a narrow lead against Mittens in SC, and provides the real insight as to why Perry dropped out.

Monday, January 16, 2012

And Another One Bites the Dust: Analysis of the Post-Huntsman Field

Well, it took a bit longer than I thought it would, but Jon Huntsman, via various sources including The Other McCain, Twitter, and various others, has dropped out of the race for the Republican presidential nomination. This leaves us with only a few contenders even as primary season just begins. As I write this, only New Hampshire and Iowa have decided who they want to get the nod from the RNC. Their choice has been revealed in a very close race in Iowa and in a landslide in New Hampshire to be Mitt "mittens" Romney, famed flip flopper and architect of the infamous Romneycare, which has in turn been used to construct the framework for the most hated piece of legislation since the Alien and Sedition Acts, Obamacare. Trailing behind Romney in these states is Gingrich (my personal choice, with the deaths of the Cain and Bachmann campaigns) Perry, and Santorum. My belle Michelle is still in the race, but she has now taken the place of John Huntsman as most impotent candidate, and poses no threat at all, in this humble blogger's view, of taking the nomination from Romney, Santorum or Gingrich.

Gingrich, by his own admission, believes himself capable of winning South Carolina, but of course what else can he say given that he's lost two of the most influential states in the union to a dark horse and an establishment candidate? Newt's optimism may in fact be genuine and not political posturing as some may or may not think, but after several gaffs of his, some of which occurred well before the campaign for president began in earnest, if Newt does in fact lose SC, he's going to have to seriously reconsider whether or not he's going to acquire that coveted prize that is the Republican nomination. If he doesn't get it, as even I'm beginning to believe he might not, then the question becomes who will Gingrich endorse? Will it hurt or help said candidate should Gingrich drop out? In my view, he'd only have two choices, as Perry's campaign continues to remain on life support, just ahead of Bachmann's in the viability category.

First choice, and my hopeful choice should he endorse rather than win: Santorum. Rick Santorum has gained a good deal of momentum, just as the other "not Romney" candidates have each in turn gained momentum throughout the tumultuous race for the chance to beat Obama. Santorum also appears to have gained a good deal of support in Texas. More support, it appears, than Perry even has, and it's Perry's home state. I seem to recall another presidential candidate, John Edwards, who couldn't carry his own home state during the 2008 Democratic primaries. Could Perry be the GOP's John Edwards? It's looking that way to me.

Second choice, and really the only other viable choice is in fact Romney. Should Newt endorse Romney, it is my prediction that the nomination will go to the former Bay State governor, lock stock and barrel. Newt will also cement his undeserved reputation as a RINO in the eyes of many. My fears of this occurrence also include the possibility that many Republican voters will stay home and not vote at all because "their guy" didn't make the cut. However absurd that is, it's what happened with Chuck DeVore during the California Senatorial Primary race. That's why we got Barbara "Senator Ma'am" Boxer for another six years instead of Carly Fiorina.

In conclusion, it's looking more and more plausible by the day that Romney will win the nomination. The odds are certainly in his favor, so far as I can tell. Yet at the same time, I'm not going to shift my support from Gingrich just yet. After all, nobody in the establishment thought Reagan could win, or for that matter even Rutherford B. Hayes all those decades ago was thought to be a loser candidate, yet both of them still won the day. In short, don't count out the Newt. He might just surprise us all.